‘The Predator’ Underperforming At #1 Against ‘The Nun’, ‘A Simple Favor’ with $26 Million Opening

Bryan Ray of @DRMovieNews

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

The Predator performed a tad better on Friday than matinees suggested last night with an opening day of $10.4 Million, re-adjusting the weekend pacing to $26 Million. Some rival studios predict it could reach $27 Million. It’s Friday gross is exactly on par with the $10.4 Million opening day of 2010’s Predators ($12.5 Million adjusted for ticket price inflation) and the $9.5 Million opening day of Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem ($12.8 Million adjusted for ticket price inflation). While it is performing slightly better than we previously thought, it is still lightyears away from how a $88 Million budgeted film should be performing. Those two other comparable films mentioned were budgeted at a reasonable $40 Million each. Luckily, the overseas market is a much bigger player than is was eight years ago, so Shane Black’s sci-fi sequel may still be able to break even.

The film has a lot playing against it, which is why it seems like only the committed fanbase is showing up to the multiplexes. Terrible reviews, C+ Cinemascore, mediocre word of mouth, the success of The Nun, Olivia Munn controversy, Tropical Storm Florence, etc. are all factors keeping audiences from buying a ticket.

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The Nun added $5.9 Million in its second Friday, dropping a massive 73.3% from its $22 Million opening day, pacing for an $18.4 Million (-66%, the highest second weekend drop of the franchise) second weekend. This number would bring its domestic total to a fantastic $85.2 Million. In comparison, The Conjuring 2 dropped 63.2% in its second weekend back in Summer 2016. The $22 Million budgeted Conjuring spin-off is doing great.

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The well-reviewed Paul Feig film, A Simple Favor , is performing most impressively among the new releases, drawing $5.92 Million in its opening day, pacing for a $16 Million opening weekend. Lead actresses Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick have been expertly marketing the $20 Million Budgeted Paul Feig film to their fans through social media and talk show appearances.

Matthew McConaughey (Finalized);Richie Merritt (Finalized)

White Boy Rick drew up $3.5 Million on Friday, pacing for a reasonable $9 Million for the weekend, the norm for smaller McConaughey projects. The film has received very sub-par reviews from critics as well as a sour response from audiences. Maybe it will find an audience over the course of its run.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:

Shane Black’s $88 Million budgeted The Predator is playing just like 2010’s Predators ($24.7 Million) – which only cost $38 Million to produce – toward an underwhelming $25 Million 3-Day total. The action-packed sci-fi sequel is looking at $10 Million today, including the less than spectacular $2.5 Million from last night’s preview screenings. We have yet to receive overseas numbers, but 20th Century Fox is expecting a solid foreign return. The $88 Million R-Rated film has received a terrible C+ Cinemascore from opening day audiences.

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The Nun is dropping like a rock, with a second weekend take in between $18.5 and $20 Million (-65% from last weekend). While this is to be expected for a normal horror film, it  is the worst second weekend drop for The Conjuring Franchise. The highest drop previously belonged to The Conjuring 2 (-63.2%) back in Summer 2016. The New Line horror spin-off will end the weekend with a domestic cume in the mid-to-high $80Ms.

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Surprisingly, Lionsgate’s A Simple Favor is shattering pre-release expectations with a possible $7 Million today, toward a fantastic $16 to $18 Million for the 3-Day Weekend. Lead actresses Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick have been expertly marketing the $20 Million Budgeted Paul Feig film to their fans through social media and talk show appearances. Very impressive.

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White Boy Rick is set to open at a reasonable $10 Million for the weekend, the norm for smaller McConaughey projects. The film has received very sub-par reviews from critics as well as a sour response from audiences. Maybe it will find an audience over the course of its run.

 

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